Gas you can afford. Taxes that don't chase people out of state. A Sacramento that has to answer to somebody. That's the pitch California Republicans are making to voters today, and the polls close tonight at 8 p.m. Pacific.
It's Election Day across the country. Yahoo News' live blog says Democrats need to flip a handful of seats to retake the House and Senate, and that some Republicans are bracing for a rough night. "It could be quite a brutal evening," one senior GOP official told Politico, as quoted by Yahoo. California is one of the main places that fight plays out, and for conservatives here the stakes go well beyond Washington.
Hilton's $3 gas bet
The governor's race is the headliner. Gov. Gavin Newsom is leaving after two terms, per Axios, and the top two finishers from the June primary are on the ballot: Democrat Xavier Becerra, a former state attorney general and Biden's Health and Human Services secretary, and Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host who once advised British Prime Minister David Cameron, according to AP and Axios.
Hilton has run almost entirely on what Californians pay. ABC30 reported he held a campaign stop in Fresno County where 150 drivers got gas at $3 a gallon. Sources told the station his campaign covered the difference. His plan, he said there, starts with suspending "the hidden gas tax, like the low carbon fuel standard and the cap and invest programs," along with easing regulations and boosting California oil production. He's also proposed capping vehicle registration fees at $73, ABC30 reported.
"Californians have had enough of being gouged," Hilton campaign manager Matt Ciepielowski told the New York Post. Hilton closed his campaign Monday night with a rally in Huntington Beach, where his run began, the Post reported.
Becerra's campaign has hit back hard. "Donald Trump keeps driving up costs, and his lapdog Steve Hilton keeps applauding," it said in a statement to ABC30. KCRA reported Becerra has talked about a new wealth tax, fees for drivers and changes to high-speed rail if he's elected. Expect conservatives to bring up that list a lot no matter who wins.
The numbers Republicans are up against
There's no sugarcoating it. The latest UC Berkeley IGS poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, had Becerra at 61% and Hilton at 34% among likely voters. ABC30 noted a Public Policy Institute of California poll showing Becerra up 22 points. MultiState rates the race Solid D.
There's one wrinkle in that same IGS poll. In September, 44% of likely voters named the cost of living as a top priority, the Times reported. By late October that had slipped to 34%, behind pushing back against the Trump administration at 40%. Hilton's gamble is that pocketbook pain shows up at the ballot box even when it doesn't top the poll. "I think there's something happening that the polls aren't picking up, but it's not gonna happen unless people vote," he told ABC30.
House seats under a new map
For conservatives, the House fight in California is personal. Voters approved Proposition 50 last year, putting in place maps that KCRA reports were redrawn to favor Democrats and target five Republican-held districts. Newsom and other Democratic leaders pushed the maps as part of a national redistricting battle, KCRA said. CalMatters reports Democrats are poised to flip at least three Republican-held seats.
The races to watch:
- District 1: Republican James Gallagher, who took the seat after the death of his friend Rep. Doug LaMalfa, faces Democrat Mike McGuire (KCRA).
- District 22: Republican Rep. David Valadao faces Democrat Randy Villegas. A USC poll had Villegas up 52% to 41%, SFGate reported.
- District 48: It's open since Rep. Darrell Issa didn't run. Republican Supervisor Jim Desmond faces Democrat Marni von Wilpert, who led 48% to 40% in a USC poll, per SFGate. California Today notes it had the narrowest party gap of any Democrat-versus-Republican district in the June primary.
- District 3: Democrat Ami Bera faces Republican Robb Tucker, a Nevada County supervisor, in the seat last held by Republican-turned-independent Kevin Kiley (KCRA).
Your wallet is on the ballot too
There are 14 statewide propositions, and several go right to the issues conservative voters care about most, according to Axios and MultiState:
- Prop. 40: a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of billionaires living in California, with most of the money going to health care.
- Props. 41 and 42: would restrict certain new state taxes. Prop. 42 would ban new taxes on personal assets and retirement holdings. If either gets more yes votes than Prop. 40, Prop. 40 is voided entirely.
- Prop. 3: would make the higher income-tax rates on top earners permanent. They're currently set to expire in 2031.
- Prop. 39: would require government-issued ID to vote in person and the last four digits of an ID number to vote by mail, plus voter-roll maintenance and citizenship checks.
- Prop. 1: $11.25 billion in housing bonds, including help for veterans.
- Prop. 45: would speed up environmental reviews for certain housing and infrastructure projects.
The bottom line
Nothing has been decided, and California counts slowly. CalMatters notes the Secretary of State has until Dec. 11 to certify results. But for right-leaning voters tired of high prices and one-party control in Sacramento, today offers a rare chance to send a message: on gas, on taxes, on voter ID and on who draws the lines. If you haven't voted yet, the window is still open.
Image: California State Capitol 2021-06-22 by Mackinacbridge, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons
